Class AA Boys
Teams:
This is a two team race. Well at least that's how it appears. Please do not get me wrong here, Warren East is a solid team that in many other years could be the state champion. However, the Lexington Catholic Knights are built to be a repeat champion. They return every scorer from the 2016 state champion team including four current seniors and three current juniors. My prediction for the team score will be less than 50 and win by more than 20 points. Here is how my top 5 teams shake out.
Lexington Catholic is the class of the Class AA boys. With a senior leadership core of Spencer Carman, Adam Walker, Josh Castillo, and Rees Box, these guys are going to see their long runs down Clays Mill Road pay off with a repeat state championship. Coach Weezy has these gentlemen in top form as many of them have set PRs this season including Spencer Carman at 15:49.44. He will look to improve the time he ran at the Lexington Catholic Invitational (18:39.81) and claim his second state title (1600 meter in the spring being his first). Who isn't to say that his teammate Adam Walker will not best Spencer and pull the team through to a repeat performance? Regardless, look for the Knights to be on the stage at the end of the day hoisting the trophy.
Three seniors, two juniors, and two sophomores make up the squad that will represent the Raiders at the State Cross Country Meet this weekend. Returning individual champ, Jacob England, is coming off another stellar season where he owns the 5th best time run in the state for Class AA boys. Jacob is a senior looking to finish of his high school cross country career with back to back state titles. He will be pushed by teammates Colton Bullington (#10 Class AA), Jerrod Eleazer (#15 Class AA) and Jacob Williams (#16 Class AA). What will be the tough piece to overcome for these guys is the gap between 4 and 5. Considering season best times and times run at the Horse Park, there is about 39 second gap there. If Dalton Sledge can pull out a stellar race, the team title may be within reach. Do not count out this team as the movers and shakers are veteran runners who have been on this stage before. I feel like I am talking myself out of Lexington Catholic at the #1 spot with this blurb, but I am going to hold firm. Warren East....prove me wrong.
The Rebels from Boyle County come into the state meet as region champions and just one notch below the top two teams. This group ran very well at the Lexington Catholic Invitational back in early October placing second only to the host Knights. In that meet they beat the pick for the team champion in Class A (Holy Cross - Louisville) and two other top 5 predictions for the state meet in Highlands and East Jessamine. Junior Ezekiel Harless leads the group and has been their leader much of the season. The strength in this group are the 2-3-4 runners who have a season best split of only 8 seconds and had a split of 14 seconds on this course on October 7. If that fifth runner (I feel like I talk about the 5th runner with every team...but I digress) can pull into that group of 3 and they can push their way through the crowd, each person they pass from Lexington Catholic and Warren East is an 8 points swing. I don't know that they can get to that level, but if they can muster something special, it could be a special day in Danville.
Highlands is the tightest group of guys coming into the state meet when comparing times run at the Horse Park this season. The split from 1-5 from Lex Cath Invite was only 55.36 seconds. This is far and away the best thing going for the Bluebirds. Will Griffith did not run with the team at this race, so there was something left to be desired from their 6th place finish. However, if you factor in his best time from the season into that meet, the team would have finished in a much better position than 6th. This team is led by a freshman, senior, 7th grader, and junior. So the responsibility is shared and should allow for a mixture of experience and naivety to propel them to a top 5 team finish. Keep an eye on the 6th runner, Donovan Staab, with this group. He has been in the mix for the team this season and could be a difference maker if the race gets into a tight score in the last mile.
The Jaguars of East Jessamine have underperformed this season and I am really taking a chance at throwing them into the top 5 here. The guys ran very well at Lexington Catholic Invite placing 7th, just behind Highlands, but then laid an egg at the region placing third behind a Corbin team that they had beaten at Lexington Catholic and narrowly lost to at the Cave Lake Fall Classic. I could have easily replaced the 5th position with Corbin and had just as much confidence. I am basing this one purely on the experience the Jaguars have with junior Preston Sagastegui and seniors Austin Yates and Jacob Markham. Newcomer Collin McElfresh begins his cross country state career with a team that can contend but needs all 5 of the team members to contribute. Keep a close eye on the race that 5th runner Jalen Bietz has. Does he show up to push the team across the finish line? He has the ability, but will it show. I will certainly do my part to have these guys pumped and ready to go.