Horne…..and you’d be crazy to think anyone is in this race. She has been dominant in every distance she has touched this year and it will continue at this meet. After that it gets a smidge dicey. I like Collinsworth here after placing 4th last year at the state meet. Getting beat at regionals hurts her chances of coming in next for sure. With no one else who placed last year in the 100, I go with the senior Thacker from Rockcastle. She is an amazing competitor who they would run in 6 events if they were allowed to at this point. The fact that Jenna Lee is even in this race as well as in the 800 is crazy, but I just can’t count her completely out.
Lexington Catholic should have a chokehold on this race. With Parker out of this race, inexplicably, it shouldn’t be that interesting except so see who places first. Their regional times may be a bit deceiving, but I’ll vouch for the headwind that they were running into as well as the lack of competition. I do like Powell’s chances as
A hunch says Horne again here as the 100 is close compared to the odds for a challenge in the 200, but after the battle with Hammond who knows what to expect here. I think Horne wins, but by a much closer margin than most are expecting. After watching Smith several times now, when she is on, she is tough to catch. Still think that Fellows will probably edge her at this spot, but Smith won’t see worse than third in my opinion. Have to put Laney 4th here as she is the next best returner. After that, well, take a look:
I am still floored by Greg Raglin’s time from the slowest heat in his region. Anyways, Carmen took
This one should be flat out crazy to watch. Horne has been faster, but
A slower than normal field lets all kind of action into this race. There is not a single individual on this list who has been under 51 this year, but that’s not to say that the five that have broken 52 aren’t primed to take those honors. No returners from last year’s field means you go with someone who is doing things right and that is
I guess I am biased here since I coach distance runners mostly, but this race could be interesting. There was a great preview at region 4 with Jenna Lee running away from Adrianne Shearer in the last 100, but after a tough first day, it will be interesting to see if Lee can do it again. I can’t pick against her, but I like Shearer in 2nd by just slipping by Buck at the end.
No bias here. This will all depend on the 1600 in my mind. If there is full participation and a fast time in the 1600 then I think it will be a two man race here. Canary has been very impressive in the 1600 and his 1:56.90 in the 800 would make him the favorite if he was running fresh. With Canary running the 800 its Mirrilees or
Hunter has not looked great at many times this year, but I can’t deny the fact that she is the returning state champion. I think that she takes it over Porter with a hot last quarter. Heines placed well last year and will ride that experience to the 3rd spot here. Ostrem in fourth, I think, and then Overpeck.
Napier makes this race more interesting than the 800 because with four options here, I think someone will take the pace out. Mirrielees could just try to run away, but I think that he saves as much as possible for the 800. Given that, I think Canary’s kick to get him 2nd still, but I don’t think anyone can pull away from Mirrielees.
Maddie White took this one last year by just biding her time and pulling away in the last two laps. Porter will be hungry after the regional. This pack will be joined by Maurer, Hunter, and Ostrem, but I don’t see anyone else making a serious run at the top 5. I think Porter pulls it out, but Ostrem is there in 2nd with White 3rd, Maurer 4th, and Hunter 5th.
This race is Aaron Poore’s to lose. He has gone and no one else has broken 10. Lowe is going to be tough if he can improve on that regional time just a little and I absolutely will not count out Thurston in this one, but Poore should win. Napier will be a factor, but when he goes hard, it has been difficult for him to follow it up at the same level in the deuce. If he can do that, then Muhlenburg South could go 1-2 in this one. I’ll take Poore at one, Lowe at two, Thurston at three, Napier at four, and Perry at five.
Girls 100m Hurdles
Nocero has poured it on of late and I think that she has it now.
Boys 110m Hurdles
Denson and Burcham must have had some finish at that regional. I like Burcham to come back and get Denson at state. I like Denninghoff even better though and I’ll take him for the win with the two previously stated taking 2nd and 3rd. Strong next, but Young close after that and I hope that someone has a story about Young not qualifying because that would be an All-State finish no doubt.
Girls 300m Hurdles
Newman has piqued my interest here as her time at the Red Dog meet is crazy and she performed well last year at state. Maguire was under 48 at state last year and that would probably win it this year. With that being said, I’m picking Gabhart, who is running great right now. I like Logue 2nd as she has not been pushed most of the year at the 300 distance and should do well with the competition. Newman falls in at third in my mind, with Smith, Roark, Maguire, Albright and Cissell all breaking 50.
Boys 300m Hurdles
It is a tragedy that Eddie Young is not going to be in this race. With that being said, Denninghoff has looked so unbelievably good all year at this distance that I think he takes this one. After that I’ll just fill in Region 1 by naming Miller, Burcham, Jones, and Denson as the next four places.
Girls 4x100m Relay
Tilghman…..now for the rest. Region 1 has looked dominant in this relay all year as they had three teams hit the auto-qualifier. That allows me to make Hopkins County Central 2nd and Heath 3rd. That is not to discount
Boys 4x100m Relay
Another dog-fight for Lexington Catholic and Paducah Tilghman this year. I like Catholic by a smidge this time, but Tilghman takes 2nd. That leaves Lloyd in third and Bourbon in fourth. From there I’ll take Knox Central and
Girls 4x200m Relay
I’ve got to sleep soon so let’s do these relays a little quicker. The interesting thing here is that the entry times for the first 5 teams are all about a full second apart. No Tilghman makes the first position capable of being possessed by someone else. I’ll follow the performance list through five spots, then we will take some risks.
Boys 4x200m Relay
First four teams here have separation. I like Lloyd’s chances, but can’t go against Tilghman in 2nd.
Girls 4x400m Relay
Boys 4x400m Relay
Lexington Catholic saw a weakness in this relay this year and took advantage of it. West Jessamine had the fastest time in AA for about three full weeks at one point, but Canary anchored them past West at the regional. Webster has been there all year and I think that will help them, but I can’t see them sneaking past Catholic. I’ll take Tilghman at the three spot and West Jessamine in fourth. After that, I’ll stick to the list.
Girls 4x800m Relay
Boyle ran at CKC and won by about 200 meters. They were shocked when they heard the time because they were just running hard and put an amazing race together. I’ll be stunned if they lose, but with that being said, there is not much depth behind them.
Boys 4x800m Relay
Muhlenburg South should run away with this one, but the race for second could be lights out if we get Mirrieless against