KHSAA Class AA State Meet Preview

 

Girls 100

Horne…..and you’d be crazy to think anyone is in this race. She has been dominant in every distance she has touched this year and it will continue at this meet. After that it gets a smidge dicey. I like Collinsworth here after placing 4th last year at the state meet. Getting beat at regionals hurts her chances of coming in next for sure. With no one else who placed last year in the 100, I go with the senior Thacker from Rockcastle. She is an amazing competitor who they would run in 6 events if they were allowed to at this point. The fact that Jenna Lee is even in this race as well as in the 800 is crazy, but I just can’t count her completely out.

Horne

Thacker

Foster

Faris

Fellows

Laney

Collinsworth

Lee

Boys 100

Lexington Catholic should have a chokehold on this race. With Parker out of this race, inexplicably, it shouldn’t be that interesting except so see who places first. Their regional times may be a bit deceiving, but I’ll vouch for the headwind that they were running into as well as the lack of competition. I do like Powell’s chances as Paducah always finds a way to surprise us a bit and I expect that Powell picks up third. Here are some thoughts on how the rest might end up:

Wilson

Guy

Powell

Terrell

Harrison

Jackson

Raines

Theiss

Girls 200

A hunch says Horne again here as the 100 is close compared to the odds for a challenge in the 200, but after the battle with Hammond who knows what to expect here. I think Horne wins, but by a much closer margin than most are expecting. After watching Smith several times now, when she is on, she is tough to catch. Still think that Fellows will probably edge her at this spot, but Smith won’t see worse than third in my opinion. Have to put Laney 4th here as she is the next best returner. After that, well, take a look:

Horne

Fellows

Smith

Laney

Johnson

Thacker

Collinsworth

Cates

Boys 200

I am still floored by Greg Raglin’s time from the slowest heat in his region. Anyways, Carmen took Wilson in the regional in a tight race, but I get the feeling that after winning last year, Oba will still have something up his sleeve here. I take him first, definitely followed by Jackson, but that will be a tight one. Keeping it very interesting, I’ll take Carmen, then Powell and the rest will fall in.

Wilson

Jackson

Carmen

Powell

Reynolds

Raglin

Herthel

Mays

Girls 400

This one should be flat out crazy to watch. Horne has been faster, but Hammond is peaking at just the right time. I think in a tight race, she can do this, which would be a huge boost for Rockcastle. I’ve been able to watch Hammond and Evans battle for a couple weeks in a row and they really put on a good show. Horne ought to take second, but Evans takes third in my mind. I like Grinstead all over her in 4th and then Collinsworth in a very close 5th place. All could possibly break 60 if the heat stays away and the humidity lets the race go.

Hammond

Horne

Evans

Grinstead

Collinsworth

Johnson

Fellows

Molitor

Boys 400

A slower than normal field lets all kind of action into this race. There is not a single individual on this list who has been under 51 this year, but that’s not to say that the five that have broken 52 aren’t primed to take those honors. No returners from last year’s field means you go with someone who is doing things right and that is Jackson in my head. He has dropped a ton of time in the 200 and the 400 over the past month and if that continues here, he will run away with it. Consistency makes my #2 pick Padgett who has been very consistent at mid/low 52 the last month before dropping under at region. Kramer takes 3rd in just his 2nd 400 of the year and Nicewinter 4th in the same situation.

Jackson

Padgett

Kramer

Nicewinter

McClain

Herthel

Maddox

Carmen

Girls 800

I guess I am biased here since I coach distance runners mostly, but this race could be interesting. There was a great preview at region 4 with Jenna Lee running away from Adrianne Shearer in the last 100, but after a tough first day, it will be interesting to see if Lee can do it again. I can’t pick against her, but I like Shearer in 2nd by just slipping by Buck at the end.

Lee

Shearer

Buck

Springer

Wesley

Newberry

Barbee

Dollins

Boys 800

No bias here. This will all depend on the 1600 in my mind. If there is full participation and a fast time in the 1600 then I think it will be a two man race here. Canary has been very impressive in the 1600 and his 1:56.90 in the 800 would make him the favorite if he was running fresh. With Canary running the 800 its Mirrilees or Stratford. I’ve been running this race through my head for weeks now and I think it comes down to this: Mirrielees is just too strong and I think if he can force the time under 1:57 then Will can’t hold him. I give Mirrielees the win mostly because I’m nostalgic and think it would be great for him to win both the 1600 and the 800. Stratford 2nd and Canary 3rd as no one else will be able to approach 2:00, but, again, the order of the top 3 change with a fresh Canary. After that, it looks like the Region 1 show.

Mirrielees

Stratford

Canary

Curran

Walker

Martin

Jones

Blankenship

Girls 1600

Hunter has not looked great at many times this year, but I can’t deny the fact that she is the returning state champion. I think that she takes it over Porter with a hot last quarter. Heines placed well last year and will ride that experience to the 3rd spot here. Ostrem in fourth, I think, and then Overpeck.

Hunter

Porter

Heines

Ostrem

Overpeck

White

McCain

Maurer

Boys 1600

Napier makes this race more interesting than the 800 because with four options here, I think someone will take the pace out. Mirrielees could just try to run away, but I think that he saves as much as possible for the 800. Given that, I think Canary’s kick to get him 2nd still, but I don’t think anyone can pull away from Mirrielees. Stratford I think sneaks into third right in front of Napier. Poore is just faster than the rest in my mind but the last three spots have interest here as they have all made vast improvements this season.

Mirrielees

Canary

Stratford

Napier

Poore

Thurston

Kubach

Perry

Girls 3200

Maddie White took this one last year by just biding her time and pulling away in the last two laps. Porter will be hungry after the regional. This pack will be joined by Maurer, Hunter, and Ostrem, but I don’t see anyone else making a serious run at the top 5. I think Porter pulls it out, but Ostrem is there in 2nd with White 3rd, Maurer 4th, and Hunter 5th.

Porter

Ostrem

White

Maurer

Hunter

Selch

Sapsford

Overpeck

Boys 3200

This race is Aaron Poore’s to lose. He has gone 9:46 and no one else has broken 10. Lowe is going to be tough if he can improve on that regional time just a little and I absolutely will not count out Thurston in this one, but Poore should win. Napier will be a factor, but when he goes hard, it has been difficult for him to follow it up at the same level in the deuce. If he can do that, then Muhlenburg South could go 1-2 in this one. I’ll take Poore at one, Lowe at two, Thurston at three, Napier at four, and Perry at five.

Poore

Lowe

Thurston

Napier

Perry

Brown

Sandlin

Alexander

Girls 100m Hurdles

Nocero has poured it on of late and I think that she has it now. McKinney has been faster, but not recently. I think she pulls a very, very close 2nd. Newman is third then, with Crabtree and Rice to follow.

Nocero

McKinney

Newman

Crabtree

Rice

Wells

Cissell

Clark

Boys 110m Hurdles

Denson and Burcham must have had some finish at that regional. I like Burcham to come back and get Denson at state. I like Denninghoff even better though and I’ll take him for the win with the two previously stated taking 2nd and 3rd. Strong next, but Young close after that and I hope that someone has a story about Young not qualifying because that would be an All-State finish no doubt.

Denninghoff

Burcham

Denson

Strong

Young

Addington

Crist

Jamerson

Razeeq

Girls 300m Hurdles

Newman has piqued my interest here as her time at the Red Dog meet is crazy and she performed well last year at state. Maguire was under 48 at state last year and that would probably win it this year. With that being said, I’m picking Gabhart, who is running great right now. I like Logue 2nd as she has not been pushed most of the year at the 300 distance and should do well with the competition. Newman falls in at third in my mind, with Smith, Roark, Maguire, Albright and Cissell all breaking 50.

Gabhart

Logue

Newman

Smith

Roark

Maguire

Albright

Cissell

Boys 300m Hurdles

It is a tragedy that Eddie Young is not going to be in this race. With that being said, Denninghoff has looked so unbelievably good all year at this distance that I think he takes this one. After that I’ll just fill in Region 1 by naming Miller, Burcham, Jones, and Denson as the next four places.

Denninghoff

Miller

Burcham

Jones

Denson

Niebel

Addington

Cross

Girls 4x100m Relay

Tilghman…..now for the rest. Region 1 has looked dominant in this relay all year as they had three teams hit the auto-qualifier. That allows me to make Hopkins County Central 2nd and Heath 3rd. That is not to discount Highlands and Lloyd Memorial who will place 4th and 5th or better if things swing right. I’ll take Lloyd in the four spot with Highlands 5th. As for the rest:

Tilghman

Hopkins County Central

Heath

Lloyd Memorial

Highlands

Casey County

Union County

Rockcastle County

Boys 4x100m Relay

Another dog-fight for Lexington Catholic and Paducah Tilghman this year. I like Catholic by a smidge this time, but Tilghman takes 2nd. That leaves Lloyd in third and Bourbon in fourth. From there I’ll take Knox Central and Highlands, followed closely by North Bullitt.

Lexington Catholic

Paducah Tilghman

Lloyd Memorial

Bourbon County

Knox Central

Highladns

North Bullitt

Mercer County

Girls 4x200m Relay

I’ve got to sleep soon so let’s do these relays a little quicker. The interesting thing here is that the entry times for the first 5 teams are all about a full second apart. No Tilghman makes the first position capable of being possessed by someone else. I’ll follow the performance list through five spots, then we will take some risks.

Highlands

Lloyd Memorial

Elizabethtown

Mercer County

Heath

Allen-County Scottsville

Lone Oak

Rockcastle County

Boys 4x200m Relay

First four teams here have separation. I like Lloyd’s chances, but can’t go against Tilghman in 2nd. Highlands picks up the 3rd and Hart takes fourth. From there:

Lloyd Memorial

Paducah Tilghman

Highlands

Hart County

Newport

Lawrence County

Russell County

Mercer County

Girls 4x400m Relay

Elizabethtown and Boyle could really make this a fun race to watch. Boyle’s middle distance group has really blossomed this year and I think that they can win a close race. I’ll take Taylor County in 3rd with Rockcastle 4th and Highlands 5th.

Boyle County

Elizabethtown

Taylor County

Rockcastle

Highlands

Casey County

Paducah Tilghman

Larue County

Boys 4x400m Relay

Lexington Catholic saw a weakness in this relay this year and took advantage of it. West Jessamine had the fastest time in AA for about three full weeks at one point, but Canary anchored them past West at the regional. Webster has been there all year and I think that will help them, but I can’t see them sneaking past Catholic. I’ll take Tilghman at the three spot and West Jessamine in fourth. After that, I’ll stick to the list.

Lexington Catholic

Webster

Paducah Tilghman

West Jessamine

Highlands

Taylor County

Pendleton County

Mason County

Girls 4x800m Relay

Boyle ran 10:04 at CKC and won by about 200 meters. They were shocked when they heard the time because they were just running hard and put an amazing race together. I’ll be stunned if they lose, but with that being said, there is not much depth behind them. Highlands is comfortably in 2nd place there as the only other team under 10:30 this year. That’s going to make things interesting for those last six spots. This is where I look to individuals who might be able to pick up their team. I’ll take Elizabethtown next since their speed is evident in the 4x4 and Lloyd Memorial in the fourth spot. Here’s the list:

Boyle County

Highlands

Elizabethtown

Lloyd Memorial

Edmonson

Russell

Paducah Tilghman

Mercy Academy

Boys 4x800m Relay

Muhlenburg South should run away with this one, but the race for second could be lights out if we get Mirrieless against Stratford for Highlands and West Jessamine. Lloyd Memorial looked incredible early but has cooled off which is why I think they can do no better than fourth. I’ll take Paducah in 5th and Russell in sixth. Here’s my list on this one:

Muhlenburg South

West Jessamine

Highlands

Lloyd Memorial

Paducah Tilghman

Russell

East Carter

Webster

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