As most of you are aware, Tyler and I made predictions on the podcast about the Top 3 in each and every race, so I thought that I would do a deep dive into how accurate we were, more specifically, how accurate I was.
We will start with the Team results.
I got 6/18 team placements exactly right, including the correct order of the girls Class 1A Team rankings. I also got 17/18 team placements at exactly or one off the spot they finished, good for 94.4% accuracy.
The most accurate event that I predicted across all 3 levels was the Girls 1600m where I predicted 7 of the 9 spots exactly correct. In 3A, because Ciara O'Shea did not compete, I made a slight adjustment to Addison Moore placing 3rd to Tula Fawbush and Jessica Secor. However, I picked the Class 1A and 2A girls 1600m run to the exact finishing places, good for 77.8% exact accuracy on the Girl's Mile and 100% Accuracy if we count one-offs.
The least accurate event that I predicted across all 3 levels was the Girls 4x200m relay. I was shockingly bad here only getting 2/9 places exactly right which is good for 22.2%. To make matters worse, if we count one-offs and exacts, I was an appalling 4/9 which is good for 44.4%. Next year, I need to do a little more relay research.
Moving on to winners, of the 114 events (18 events per gender per Class and the team title), I correctly predicted 76 of the winners which is good for 66.7% accuracy. If we include one-offs, the percentage grows to 90.4% accuracy (103/114).
In the individual classes, my numbers were as follows.
Class 1A Girls | Exact | 47.4% |
Class 1A Girls | One Off | 82.5% |
Class 1A Boys | Exact | 35.09% |
Class 1A Boys | One Off | 63.16% |
Class 2A Girls | Exact | 53.7% |
Class 2A Girls | One Off | 81.5% |
Class 2A Boys | Exact | 83.9% |
Class 2A Boys | One Off | 32.14% |
Class 3A Girls | Exact | 66.7% |
Class 3A Girls | One Off | 36.8% |
Class 3A Boys | Exact | 77.2% |
Class 3A Boys | One Off | 40.4% |
In total, I was 138/338 on exact predictions which is good for 40.8%, and I was 256/338 on exact and one-off predictions which is 75.74%.
Overall, these numbers show that I was fairly accurate, however, there is definitely room for improvement.