KYTrackXC.com

I just looked at the www.ktccca.org/ site and I am in disbelief...As of October 22, 2009 There are 163 schools with approx. 3700+ Runners set to race at the 2009 MOC. That is almost double from 2007. Middle School Cross Country continues to grow in leaps and bounds. I just want to Congratulate Every Runner who ran the races this year...You are "All" Amazing Individuals.

GOOD LUCK AT STATE....!!!!!!

Any guesses on how many restarts we'll get in the elementary races this year?

I think it will be a good year, so maybe 7?

Ok, question #2. How far will the elementary field run after each recalled start before they realize it's a "do-over"?

Boo speculation of mishaps, hurray conversation of the winners.

Let's hear some predictions for the champions in each division. Girls and Boys Elementary and Girls and Boys Middle School.

Haha, yeah why not start a Fantasy Elementary Cross Country league or, better still, we can argue over who the best 4th grader will be at the "State Meet".

Predictions...I guess that will depend on who is placed where...If the coaches take their runners from upper level all season placements, and drop them down into the lower level races, then I would say it will be easy to predict an outcome in most races. Throw in the "Anything Can Happen" philosophy and you may get somewhat closer to an accurate outcome. Aside from that...Koby Gossett_Winner of the SKY Conference Elementary Race and New Course Record Holder will certainly be in the top 10, maybe even top 5 on the Boys Elementary side...Brooke Merkel is an outstanding Girls Elementary Runner and will be up there as well. Middle school is another story...I would love to say that Dustyn Johnson could take this win, but as I have been repeatedly reminded of on here.., because my son hasn't run with a high school team all season, and doesn't have the training that most of the top middle school runners have he has been reduced down to a .1% chance of taking this win...But that is OK.."Greater Upsets Have Occurred"..and I don't want to put that kind of pressure on him. He has trained very hard, he has stayed with his Middle School team, and although I believe and have stated many times, he will be in the top 5.., I will be very proud of him no matter what the outcome...!! The girls side I think is a pretty easy call...Amelia Reynolds...or Whitney O'Bryan...whichever one wants it more. Both exceptional runners, both "well trained" and experienced. SO here is my prediction:

Boys Elementary: Koby Gossett (CVMS) Top 5
Girls Elementary: Brooke Merkel (CVMS) Top 3

Boys Middle School:

1-5_ Any Order...

Chase Geary
Dustyn Johnson
Keith Prive
Chris Striegel
Jonathan Taylor

Girls Middle School:

Amelia Reynolds
Whitney O'Bryan

I could be way off here...with 3700 runners, all the changes in the course, weather, course conditions, illness and the such..I guess it could be any ones race. Either way..Good Luck To All.

At Steeple's request! My predictions for state.

General

My biggest concern going in to state this year is how much the illnesses going around will impact the results. There has been discussion on this site about it and I have seen it in the results. Schools like North Oldham have been hit very hard, early in the season they were running 30 girls in races, now it's more like 15 and one of their assistants told me it was mostly due to H1N1. I also heard last weekend that some other schools are just starting to get hit, bad timing.


Girls

I think the girl's race will be a barn-burner. Going into this year, Bowling Green looked invincible but they lost one of their top five and they were only five deep last year. They have filled that spot but they are not the power house they were last year, plus they seem more focused on HS races.

On the other hand, Coach Penny has done a heck of a job with South Oldham. Last year they had one in the top 30, this year they may have 5 in the top 30. They also have the smallest 1-5 gap of the big three, which may be a deciding factor.

College View is probably the last of the schools capable of winning state. Their top 3 can run with just about anyone but their 1-5 gap is awful big. It looks like it will come down to South Oldham's pack running vs. the stars of CV and BG. If BG or CV can get number 5 across the finish line early they win, otherwise SO will take it.

North Oldham has the depth but lacks front runners. They may actually be the first team to get five across the line but may not have a runner in the top 20. St. Edward's looks to only be 4 deep, but they always seem to be able to come up with a 5th runner from somewhere at the last minute, if they do they will be dangerous. East Oldham lost their top 2 to the HS team; they will be solid, but not top 3. Daviess Co. is also only 4 deep but dangerous in the top 4. I don't see anyone else in the hunt for a podium spot.

No girl's team has ever won this meet with more than 125 points and I don't think this year will be any different, probably well less than 100 points. I expect the top four teams to have close to 20 of the top 30 spots.

Individually, they don't have to worry about a HS races only girl dropping down, all the top girls in this situation have been running both. I see O'Bryan with Prieskorn, Games, and Bean chasing, Reynolds and Wilson should be close as well.

Boys

I see this year as being an off year for boys in KY. Last year there were over 50 boys under 15:00 for 4K. So far this year there are 19 and at least half of those are on what I believe (or know) to be short courses. Last year the winning time was close to 13:30, we may not see a sub 14:00 this year which would make it one of the slowest since they moved up to 4K.

The combined Pulaski Co. middle schools team looks to be the class of the field; I don't see anyone beating them. The next two, NO and DC are very close, then there is a small gap to CV, Holy Trinity and Owensboro with all of them very close. The rest of the field looks to be gapped, although EO's top three have looked great recently.

Winning boy's scores over 90 are not uncommon and the top four teams will only have maybe 20 of the top 60 runners.

Since some of the HS racing boys are moving down for one week to collect hardware the individual boy

Amazingly well put...!!!!

Very small amount of restarts this year. I think if there are any the starters will have to empty every gun to get all the kids to come back and then someone from way out in the crowd will have to jump out in front and stop a few of the runners.

I would like to start the who is the best 4th grader in the state thread. On another site I see who is the best 5th grade, 6th grade and so on basketball players. That is the king sport so lets be like them and start with 3rd graders.

Good luck to everyone this weekend. If anyone wants to help out on Saturday you can PM me. I could use the extra people. If you have never worked a finish chute I can get you all kinds of experience. It will be an experience that you can't get anywhere else in any other finish chute.

My experience is that working the finish for Elementary and MS is a lot easier than HS. You get less barfing on you (although it tends to be more colorful-think fruit loops and Sunny D!) and the kids are a lot easier to move when they collapse.

MOTMAN

My experience is that working the finish for Elementary and MS is a lot easier than HS. You get less barfing on you (although it tends to be more colorful-think fruit loops and Sunny D!) and the kids are a lot easier to move when they collapse.

That is normally true but the number is what makes this one really fun. Gotta love those fruit loops. They are colorful coming back up.

MOTMAN

I see this year as being an off year for boys in KY. Last year there were over 50 boys under 15:00 for 4K. So far this year there are 19 and at least half of those are on what I believe (or know) to be short courses. Last year the winning time was close to 13:30, we may not see a sub 14:00 this year which would make it one of the slowest since they moved up to 4K.

Is this a slow course? To that end, does anyone have a course map the can post or email? And if so, does it includes where the 1 and 2 miles splits are located? Thanks!

Boys:
1a. Max Mudd
1b. Chase Geary
3. Chris Streigal
4 Dustyn Johnson
5 Jonathon Taylor
6. Keith Prive

Max got sick before the Trinity Invitational, and has been recovering since then, and has not been at full strength, but should be healthy and ready for state. He has some great training under him that I think will pay off. I think that it will come down to Chase and Max in the end, and either one of them can win it. Obviously Geary has had the best season of them all, but because Mudd has only raced at 100% once, it's hard to tell what kind of season he would have had. I don't think that is season will be indicative of how he does at state, but I can definitely be wrong about that. It will be fun to watch.

if i had to pick one winner i would have to go with trenton fryman.. this kids a gamer and it wont even be a close race. dont let his size fool u, hes a beast

Basically it comes down to 2 boys,Prive and Geary,but Prive has won 100% of his middle school races this year,while Geary has only lost 1 it happened to be the only race that he raced Prive in,with there times being a whole 30 seconds apart,so honestly I very strongly beleive Keith will win,there's literally no doubt in my mind,he's got this easy.I actually beleive just as strongly that he'll win state in a couple years.He's broken 18 in a 5k(probably is about to break 17),and most h.s. boys cant even do that. Keith PRE-ve will win state,just wait and see.

Here is a link to the map of the 4K course:

Slightly different than last year. The first two miles are identical but the last 1/2 mile has changed. My thinking is it will be slightly faster than before, we'll see.

No, this is not a slow course, it has rolling hills so its not blazing fast like Tom Sawyer, but there is only one moderate hill (just before the 2 mile mark) and its less than 200 meters long, everything else is gradual slopes.

First time I looked at the map. It looks like a different course than was run at Dunbar, is that true?

Motman had a interesting comment. Pulaski combined team.
What does that mean? If you combined 2 of the Oldham County Schools they would win every year! Goshen and Harmony would win every year if they were allowed to run 6th graders from another school to run with them. The sad thing about the whole thing is that we are not all on the same playing feild.

Back:

The finish is different than Dunbar. The first two miles are identical.

Finish in front of the grandstand? That would be cool!

smokeymcpot

Basically it comes down to 2 boys,Prive and Geary,but Prive has won 100% of his middle school races this year,while Geary has only lost 1 it happened to be the only race that he raced Prive in,with there times being a whole 30 seconds apart,so honestly I very strongly beleive Keith will win,there's literally no doubt in my mind,he's got this easy.I actually beleive just as strongly that he'll win state in a couple years.He's broken 18 in a 5k(probably is about to break 17),and most h.s. boys cant even do that. Keith PRE-ve will win state,just wait and see.

Prive only ran TWO middle school races ALL season where Johnson ran 10 and won 9. Geary only ran TWO middle school races ALL season and lost one of those. "BUT" in Geary's defense...he went the wrong way...and in Johnson's defense he fell in Swampland and had a rough time getting back up on his feet...and again that is the ONLY race Dustyn Johnson lost ALL season....!!! ALL of these boys are GREAT Competitors...and what I really like about these runners is they are still always ready to congratulate each other...Win or Lose...THAT is what I like about Cross Country...!!

Last year, it wouldn't have mattered how many MS races Tretez ran before the MOC, he was going to win and win big.

Motman & Jaguarscc
Pulaski co MS is not combined with anybody...Northern Pulaski Co Middle school Feeds into Pulaski Co High, and thus runs under the PC name, Southern Pulaski co MS feeds into Southwestern High School and they run under SWHS name...Good Luck to everyone the rest of the season!!!

Lets not forget the teams from Ashland...I've watched them all year, and Cameron Sanders & Denny Ross have been running pretty good. For the girls Fairview has some great atletes, and Taylor Ross from Ashland being a 4th grader is one to be watched...Who knows what will happen...