Girls 100
Horne…..and you’d be crazy to think anyone is in this race. She has been dominant in every distance she has touched this year and it will continue at this meet. After that it gets a smidge dicey. I like Collinsworth here after placing 4th last year at the state meet. Getting beat at regionals hurts her chances of coming in next for sure. With no one else who placed last year in the 100, I go with the senior Thacker from Rockcastle. She is an amazing competitor who they would run in 6 events if they were allowed to at this point. The fact that Jenna Lee is even in this race as well as in the 800 is crazy, but I just can’t count her completely out.
Horne
Thacker
Foster
Faris
Fellows
Laney
Collinsworth
Lee
Boys 100
Lexington Catholic should have a chokehold on this race. With Parker out of this race, inexplicably, it shouldn’t be that interesting except so see who places first. Their regional times may be a bit deceiving, but I’ll vouch for the headwind that they were running into as well as the lack of competition. I do like Powell’s chances as
Guy
Powell
Terrell
Raines
Theiss
Girls 200
A hunch says Horne again here as the 100 is close compared to the odds for a challenge in the 200, but after the battle with Hammond who knows what to expect here. I think Horne wins, but by a much closer margin than most are expecting. After watching Smith several times now, when she is on, she is tough to catch. Still think that Fellows will probably edge her at this spot, but Smith won’t see worse than third in my opinion. Have to put Laney 4th here as she is the next best returner. After that, well, take a look:
Horne
Fellows
Smith
Laney
Johnson
Thacker
Collinsworth
Cates
Boys 200
I am still floored by Greg Raglin’s time from the slowest heat in his region. Anyways, Carmen took
Carmen
Powell
Reynolds
Raglin
Herthel
Mays
Girls 400
This one should be flat out crazy to watch. Horne has been faster, but
Horne
Evans
Grinstead
Collinsworth
Johnson
Fellows
Molitor
Boys 400
A slower than normal field lets all kind of action into this race. There is not a single individual on this list who has been under 51 this year, but that’s not to say that the five that have broken 52 aren’t primed to take those honors. No returners from last year’s field means you go with someone who is doing things right and that is
Padgett
Kramer
Nicewinter
McClain
Herthel
Maddox
Carmen
Girls 800
I guess I am biased here since I coach distance runners mostly, but this race could be interesting. There was a great preview at region 4 with Jenna Lee running away from Adrianne Shearer in the last 100, but after a tough first day, it will be interesting to see if Lee can do it again. I can’t pick against her, but I like Shearer in 2nd by just slipping by Buck at the end.
Lee
Shearer
Buck
Springer
Wesley
Newberry
Barbee
Dollins
Boys 800
No bias here. This will all depend on the 1600 in my mind. If there is full participation and a fast time in the 1600 then I think it will be a two man race here. Canary has been very impressive in the 1600 and his 1:56.90 in the 800 would make him the favorite if he was running fresh. With Canary running the 800 its Mirrilees or
Mirrielees
Canary
Curran
Martin
Jones
Blankenship
Girls 1600
Hunter has not looked great at many times this year, but I can’t deny the fact that she is the returning state champion. I think that she takes it over Porter with a hot last quarter. Heines placed well last year and will ride that experience to the 3rd spot here. Ostrem in fourth, I think, and then Overpeck.
Hunter
Porter
Heines
Ostrem
Overpeck
White
McCain
Maurer
Boys 1600
Napier makes this race more interesting than the 800 because with four options here, I think someone will take the pace out. Mirrielees could just try to run away, but I think that he saves as much as possible for the 800. Given that, I think Canary’s kick to get him 2nd still, but I don’t think anyone can pull away from Mirrielees.
Mirrielees
Canary
Napier
Poore
Thurston
Kubach
Perry
Girls 3200
Maddie White took this one last year by just biding her time and pulling away in the last two laps. Porter will be hungry after the regional. This pack will be joined by Maurer, Hunter, and Ostrem, but I don’t see anyone else making a serious run at the top 5. I think Porter pulls it out, but Ostrem is there in 2nd with White 3rd, Maurer 4th, and Hunter 5th.
Porter
Ostrem
White
Maurer
Hunter
Selch
Sapsford
Overpeck
Boys 3200
This race is Aaron Poore’s to lose. He has gone
Poore
Lowe
Thurston
Napier
Perry
Brown
Sandlin
Alexander
Girls 100m Hurdles
Nocero has poured it on of late and I think that she has it now.
Nocero
Newman
Crabtree
Rice
Wells
Cissell
Boys 110m Hurdles
Denson and Burcham must have had some finish at that regional. I like Burcham to come back and get Denson at state. I like Denninghoff even better though and I’ll take him for the win with the two previously stated taking 2nd and 3rd. Strong next, but Young close after that and I hope that someone has a story about Young not qualifying because that would be an All-State finish no doubt.
Denninghoff
Burcham
Denson
Strong
Young
Addington
Crist
Jamerson
Razeeq
Girls 300m Hurdles
Newman has piqued my interest here as her time at the Red Dog meet is crazy and she performed well last year at state. Maguire was under 48 at state last year and that would probably win it this year. With that being said, I’m picking Gabhart, who is running great right now. I like Logue 2nd as she has not been pushed most of the year at the 300 distance and should do well with the competition. Newman falls in at third in my mind, with Smith, Roark, Maguire, Albright and Cissell all breaking 50.
Gabhart
Logue
Newman
Smith
Roark
Maguire
Albright
Cissell
Boys 300m Hurdles
It is a tragedy that Eddie Young is not going to be in this race. With that being said, Denninghoff has looked so unbelievably good all year at this distance that I think he takes this one. After that I’ll just fill in Region 1 by naming Miller, Burcham, Jones, and Denson as the next four places.
Denninghoff
Miller
Burcham
Jones
Denson
Niebel
Addington
Cross
Girls 4x100m Relay
Tilghman…..now for the rest. Region 1 has looked dominant in this relay all year as they had three teams hit the auto-qualifier. That allows me to make Hopkins County Central 2nd and Heath 3rd. That is not to discount
Tilghman
Heath
Lloyd Memorial
Boys 4x100m Relay
Another dog-fight for Lexington Catholic and Paducah Tilghman this year. I like Catholic by a smidge this time, but Tilghman takes 2nd. That leaves Lloyd in third and Bourbon in fourth. From there I’ll take Knox Central and
Lloyd Memorial
Knox Central
Highladns
North Bullitt
Girls 4x200m Relay
I’ve got to sleep soon so let’s do these relays a little quicker. The interesting thing here is that the entry times for the first 5 teams are all about a full second apart. No Tilghman makes the first position capable of being possessed by someone else. I’ll follow the performance list through five spots, then we will take some risks.
Lloyd Memorial
Heath
Allen-County Scottsville
Lone Oak
Boys 4x200m Relay
First four teams here have separation. I like Lloyd’s chances, but can’t go against Tilghman in 2nd.
Lloyd Memorial
Girls 4x400m Relay
Rockcastle
Boys 4x400m Relay
Lexington Catholic saw a weakness in this relay this year and took advantage of it. West Jessamine had the fastest time in AA for about three full weeks at one point, but Canary anchored them past West at the regional. Webster has been there all year and I think that will help them, but I can’t see them sneaking past Catholic. I’ll take Tilghman at the three spot and West Jessamine in fourth. After that, I’ll stick to the list.
Webster
West Jessamine
Girls 4x800m Relay
Boyle ran
Lloyd Memorial
Edmonson
Russell
Boys 4x800m Relay
Muhlenburg South should run away with this one, but the race for second could be lights out if we get Mirrieless against
Muhlenburg South
West Jessamine
Lloyd Memorial
Russell
East Carter
Webster